一、淘金娛樂城講解馬丁格爾策略的優點
理論上能夠追回虧損:馬丁格爾策略的核心思想是在每次輸掉賭注時,將賭注翻倍,直到贏得一局為止。這樣做的目的是追回之前的虧損。在理論上,如果玩家有足夠的資金,最終能夠贏得一局,這就能夠抵消之前的虧損,並獲得利潤。
快速獲利的潛力:由於每次輸掉賭注時,都會將賭注翻倍,如果運氣好,玩家能夠在較短的時間內贏得一局,並實現較大的獲利。這吸引了許多玩家將馬丁格爾策略應用於輪盤投注。
簡單易行:馬丁格爾策略非常簡單易行,不需要複雜的計算或分析。只需按照固定的規則在每一局中進行投注,讓許多玩家認為它是一個適合初學者的策略。
A martingale is a class of betting strategies that originated from and were popular in 18th-century France. The simplest of these strategies was designed for a game in which the gambler wins the stake if a coin comes up heads and loses if it comes up tails. The strategy had the gambler double the bet after every loss, so that the first win would recover all previous losses plus win a profit equal to the original stake. Thus the strategy is an instantiation of the St. Petersburg paradox.
Since a gambler will almost surely eventually flip heads, the martingale betting strategy is certain to make money for the gambler provided they have infinite wealth and there is no limit on money earned in a single bet. However, no gambler has infinite wealth, and the exponential growth of the bets can bankrupt unlucky gamblers who choose to use the martingale, causing a catastrophic loss.
Despite the fact that the gambler usually wins a small net reward, thus appearing to have a sound strategy, the gambler’s expected value remains zero because the small probability that the gambler will suffer a catastrophic loss exactly balances with the expected gain. In a casino, the expected value is negative, due to the house’s edge. Additionally, as the likelihood of a string of consecutive losses is higher than common intuition suggests, martingale strategies can bankrupt a gambler quickly.
The martingale strategy has also been applied to roulette, as the probability of hitting either red or black is close to 50%. (資料來源 )
二、馬丁格爾策略的缺點
資金需求較大:馬丁格爾策略需要足夠的資金來支持連續的翻倍賭注。如果玩家連續多次輸掉,賭注金額將迅速增加,需要有足夠的資金來應對,否則可能達到自己的賭注限制而無法繼續追回虧損。
遇到連續輸掉的風險:輪盤是一個純粹的運氣遊戲,沒有任何策略能夠保證連續贏得。如果玩家遭遇到連續多次輸掉,賭注金額將不斷增加,可能超出玩家的資金承受能力,從而導致巨大損失。
莊家優勢仍然存在:輪盤中的莊家始終保持微小的優勢,通常是來自綠色數字(0或0和00)。無論使用何種策略,莊家的優勢都不會改變,這使得馬丁格爾策略不能徹底消除風險。
為了更好地理解馬丁格爾策略的優點和缺點,我們來看一個例子:
小明在娛樂城輪盤桌前採用馬丁格爾策略進行投注。他開始時下注100元,在第一局輸掉,接著在第二局翻倍下注200元,然後在第三局翻倍下注400元,依此類推。
局數 | 賭注金額 | 輸贏結果 | 淨收益
1 | 100 | 輸 | -100
2 | 200 | 輸 | -300
3 | 400 | 贏 | 100
4 | 100 | 贏 | 200
5 | 100 | 贏 | 300
從上面的例子中,我們可以看到小明使用馬丁格爾策略的過程。在前兩局輸掉後,他的虧損不斷累積,但在第三局贏得了400元,這將之前的虧損全部抵消,並實現了100元的利潤。在後續的局數中,小明不斷翻倍下注,並開始獲得盈利。
然而,這只是理論上的情況。在現實中,輪盤是一個仰賴運氣的遊戲,沒有任何策略能夠保證連續贏得。如果小明遇到連續多次輸掉,他的賭注金額將不斷增加,可能超出他的資金承受能力,從而導致更大的損失。
The fundamental reason why all martingale-type betting systems fail is that no amount of information about the results of past bets can be used to predict the results of a future bet with accuracy better than chance. In mathematical terminology, this corresponds to the assumption that the win–loss outcomes of each bet are independent and identically distributed random variables, an assumption which is valid in many realistic situations.
It follows from this assumption that the expected value of a series of bets is equal to the sum, over all bets that could potentially occur in the series, of the expected value of a potential bet times the probability that the player will make that bet. In most casino games, the expected value of any individual bet is negative, so the sum of many negative numbers will also always be negative.
The martingale strategy fails even with unbounded stopping time, as long as there is a limit on earnings or on the bets (which is also true in practice).[1] It is only with unbounded wealth, bets and time that it could be argued that the martingale becomes a winning strategy. (資料來源 )
三、淘金:策略實戰應用
讓我們來提供一個更具體的例子來說明馬丁格爾策略與固定賭注策略的比較。
假設有兩名玩家,小明和小華,都在娛樂城輪盤桌前進行投注。他們兩人都開始時下注100元,小明使用馬丁格爾策略,每次輸掉賭注時將賭注翻倍,而小華則使用傳統的固定賭注策略,每次都下注100元。
讓我們來看看他們在輪盤投注中的結果:
局數 | 小明 (馬丁格爾策略) | 小華 (固定賭注策略)
1 | 輸 100 | 輸 100
2 | 輸 200 | 贏 100
3 | 輸 400 | 贏 100
4 | 贏 800 | 贏 100
5 | 贏 1600 | 贏 100
從上面的例子中,我們可以看到小明使用馬丁格爾策略的過程。在前兩局輸掉後,他的虧損不斷累積,但在第三局贏得了800元,這將之前的虧損全部抵消,並實現了200元的利潤。在後續的局數中,小明不斷翻倍下注,並開始獲得更高的盈利。
而小華使用固定賭注策略,無論贏輸,賭注金額始終保持不變。即使小華贏得了多局,利潤也相對較低。
這個例子再次強調了馬丁格爾策略的特點:它可以在輸掉後追回虧損並實現較大的獲利。
馬丁格爾策略確實在特定情況下能夠追回虧損。然而,同時也指出了馬丁格爾策略存在的高風險,尤其是在面對連續多次輸掉的情況下。因此,玩家在使用馬丁格爾策略時應該謹慎行事,確保自己有足夠的資金來應對連續輸掉的情況,並避免過度追求回報而陷入不理智的賭博行為。
淘金:結語
馬丁格爾策略是一種在輪盤投注中廣泛應用的策略,其以翻倍下注的方式來追回虧損。它的吸引力在於其理論上能夠追回虧損並快速獲利的潛力,且簡單易行。
然而,馬丁格爾策略同時也存在著極高的風險,特別是在面對連續多次輸掉的情況下。玩家在使用馬丁格爾策略時應該謹慎行事,確保自己有足夠的資金來應對不確定的風險,並將賭博視為一種娛樂活動,避免過度追求回報而陷入不理智的賭博行為。